Tropical Storm Oscar: Hurricane Center Reveals Path

Tropical Storm Oscar, which strengthened into a hurricane over the weekend, is currently blustering over the easternmost tip of Cuba.
The hurricane already hit the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas while traveling westwards, and is expected to veer to the northeast over the coming days, shooting off into the Atlantic in the direction of Bermuda.
Oscar is the 15th named storm of the hurricane season and quickly strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane on Saturday, before dropping back down to tropical storm strength after it made landfall in Cuba on Sunday night.
“It is fair to say it’s been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar. After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny hurricane,” the NHC said on Saturday night.
Wind speeds reached about 85 mph on Saturday night, making Oscar a Category 1 hurricane. Oscar was incredibly small for a hurricane, with its hurricane-force winds only stretching about 5 miles out from its eye.
Oscar, now a tropical storm as it moves across southeastern Cuba, has wind speeds of about 50 mph.
“A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.
“On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday,” the NHC said.
The storm is expected to get weaker as it moves across Cuba and not get any stronger as it passes over the ocean again.
“Forecasters use computer model forecasts to predict the path of these storms. There are two main types of computer models: global models and hurricane models.
“Global models, like the GFS and ECMWF model, are run over the entire globe. Hurricane models, like the HWRF and HAFS model, are run over a region around the hurricane at higher resolution,” Brian Tang, an associate professor of atmospheric science at New York’s University at Albany, told Newsweek.
“Forecasters take into account all these models to predict the path.”
The NHC predicts that Oscar will dissipate within around 72 hours, and therefore won’t affect the U.S.
“The cyclone should accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of [a] trough. In 60-72 hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. coast by day 3,” the NHC said.
However, as it blows across Cuba, Oscar is expected to bring powerful winds and intense rainfall, with up to 20 inches of rain forecast in some areas, and storm surges anticipated along the coast.
“Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra,” the NHC said.
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